Why the Mets Getting Knocked Out in the Wild Card Round Hurts So Much
Before we delve into why this season feels like such a huge disappointment, I think it’s important to take a look back. Not too far into the past, just one year ago to the time of 2021...
About twelve months ago, the Mets wrapped up their 2021 season eight games under .500 with a record of 77-85. They were 13 games back for the final wild card spot and had a run differential of -32. Against teams that were .500 or better, the 2021 Mets went 33-53, and on the road they were an abysmal 21 games under .500 (30-51).
This second year with Steve Cohen as the club’s owner was a very different story. With new manager Buck Showalter at the helm and a team reinforced with some solid free agent signings, the 2022 Mets won 101 games, finishing a whopping 40 games over .500. Against the league’s teams over .500 they went 45-37, and on the road they were 13 games above .500 (47-34).
Just looking at these numbers, with a 24-win improvement over 2021 (the best win improvement in the National League), in addition to making the postseason for the first time since 2016, this season should feel like a huge success. So why do Mets fans (rightfully) feel so awful?
Changing Expectations
Any Mets fan would be thrilled at the idea of winning over 100 games and making the playoffs if they were told that’d be the outcome of the 2022 season sometime in April. But over the course of a season, expectations change. It quickly became clear to Mets fans that they didn’t have just a playoff hopeful on their hands—this was a team that had the potential to win a World Series.
Braves fans relish the fact that their team came back to catch the Mets and win the division after being 10.5 games back, but they were 10.5 games back on June 1st, over four months before the end of the regular season. The Mets had only played 52 games then, less than a third of a season—Atlanta had plenty of time to catch up.
Things look worse when you realize that on August 7th, after beating Atlanta four out of five games, the Mets were 6.5 games ahead. At that point, the Mets were 31 games over .500 (70-39) and the Braves were only 18 games over .500 (64-46). According to Fangraphs, at that point with 53 games left to play in the regular season, the Mets had a 91.9% chance to win the division. On that same date, they had a 95.9% chance to make the League Division Series, a feat they would ultimately never accomplish.
This change in the expectations of fans (which the numbers show was definitely justified) over the course of the season is one of the two main reasons 2022 feels like a huge letdown for the Mets. As the months went on, fans expected (at the very least) a legitimate postseason run from this Mets team. Instead they received a quick exit at the hands of a Padres team that finished 16 games over .500.
The Mets Blew It
The Braves played ridiculously good baseball to catch the Mets, but the truth of the matter is that it wouldn’t have been enough if the Mets hadn’t blown it themselves, and that’s the second major reason 2022’s left Mets fans feeling awful. At the All-Star Break, I wrote an article taking a look at how the rest of the season shaped up for New York.
I wrote then about the Mets final month of regular season games, “If the Mets can survive their rough month of August and be within at least striking distance of the Braves (if they fall into second place at all), this is their opportunity to rack up a ton of wins, over a period where only 22.5% of their games are against teams that have a winning record at the All-Star Break. Many of these opponents are only going to get worse too as we approach the trade deadline and they jettison their best players.”
The Mets ended August with a three game lead over Atlanta. However, the Mets didn’t take care of business against the league’s bottom dwellers in September like I thought they would. They started the month by losing 2 out of 3 at home against the Nationals. They’d go on to lose a pair of games against Miami (out of 5), and, definitely worst of all, they got swept at home by an awful Chicago Cubs team.
Despite their failure at taking advantage of an easy September schedule, all the Mets had to do was not get swept by the Braves in the final showdown between the two teams and they’d almost definitely win the division. But they didn’t show up for that series and got swept. They really shouldn’t have even been in a position for those games to matter though. Did the Mets blow it by not winning one of those three games? Partially, yes. But the real missed opportunity was not beating bad teams earlier on.
Losing the division to the Braves resulted in three Wild Card games where the team was also largely unimpressive, but it was not winning the division in a year when the team really should have, that ultimately cost them.
The Most Anti-Climactic of Endings
The Mets accomplished a lot this season on a team level, and for some players on an individual level. Jeff McNeill won the batting title. Pete Alonso finished first in the National League with 131 RBIs. Edwin Diaz emerged as the best closer in baseball and had 118 strike outs in just 62 innings pitched (while also having the best walk out song in recent memory).
These accomplishments are great, as is the team winning over 100 games. But for all of that, the team never got a chance for any big team celebrations or moments. The Mets didn’t win the division. They didn’t win a playoff series. Qualifying for the wild card might be satisfying if you have 85-90 or so wins, but for this Mets team it felt like an awful consolation prize.
As a fan, I loved this Mets team. It was one of the best and most fun teams in recent memory, and the fact that they never got that big moment is a shame. Because next year’s team will be different. Free agents will be signed and some players won’t be coming back.
I think all Mets fans have hope for the future and recognize that this season was a big step in the right direction. But that doesn’t help with the overwhelming feeling of disappointment as the rest of the playoffs play out and the Mets aren’t a part of them. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Mets fans know it would have been hard to go from a team that won 77 games a year ago to becoming World Series champions. Steve Cohen said it might take 3-5 years after all. It would’ve been nice though. And if felt like this team, with the way they were playing at one point in the season, might have been able to do it.