Charlotte Hornets: Overtime, Gordon Hayward, & A Look at the Future

With only 22 games left in the regular season, it’s time to look at two of the big reasons the Charlotte Hornets are below .500 and take a look at how the final month and a half of the season could play out.

Overtime Struggles

The Hornets final game before the All-Star Break was a double-overtime loss to the team with the current best record in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat. The game prior they lost on the road in overtime to a good Minnesota Timberwolves team. Both were super close games that could’ve gone either way. 

All overtime games, by the very fact that they are tied at the end of regulation, are games that could easily go one way or the other if just a few small things go differently. This year, things haven’t gone the Hornets way at all though, with them going 0-6 in overtime games. No other team in all of basketball has more than three overtime loses.

These six games that went to OT have really swung the way the Hornets seem to be headed at this point in the season, with the Hornets currently at 29-31. If instead of losing all six winnable games the Hornets had won all six, they’d be 10 games above .500 and the current six seed in the Eastern Conference. Even if the Hornets had split these games, which is what you’d expect, and had gone 3-3, they’d be 32-28, with a more realistic chance at avoiding the Play-In Tournament.

Gordon Hayward’s Injury: More Impactful than it Seems

Despite being paid over 12 million dollars more than the next highest paid Hornet, Gordon Hayward is arguably the fourth best player on the team. When the Hornets began pushing for players to make the All-Star Game (before Hayward’s injury), Hayward was not among the LaMelo Ball-Miles Bridges-Terry Rozier group being promoted. And that’s definitely justifiable. Hayward’s stat line for the 2021-22 season (16.1 points per game, 4.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists) is good, but far from great.

Despite this though, Hayward is crucial to the team’s success and the proof is in the win/loss column. With Hayward this season, the Hornets are 26-22. Without him their record is 3-9. Last year it was the same story. For the 2020-21 Season, in games Hayward played Charlotte went 24-20. In games where No. 20 couldn’t take the court: 9-19. 

Gordon Hayward isn’t the best player on the Hornets, and he’s definitely not the most exciting or flashiest either, but he’s been the difference between a winning team and a team that without him hasn’t been able to win even a third of its games. With Hayward out indefinitely with an ankle injury, the current team is going to have to prove it can win consistently without a player that’s clearly had a great impact on the team’s success.

The Final 22 Games

It seems unlikely that Charlotte will be able to avoid the Play-In Tournament and capture a top six seed. Last season, the No. 6 seed finished eight games over .500. This year, the current team in position for the six seed, the Boston Celtics, are also eight games over .500. If that holds, we could expect the No. 6 seed to finish with a record around 45-37. For the Hornets to get to 45 wins they’d need to go 16-6 over their final 22 games.

Going 16-6 won’t be easy, but the Hornets have been an incredibly streaky team. Earlier this year, after losing five games in a row, the Hornets went on to win eight of their next nine, with wins over quality teams like the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves. From the end of December through most of January, the Hornets won 10 out of 13 games, including back-to-back wins over the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Another run like this will be needed if the Hornets want to really get back into mix in the East.

Working in their favor is the fact that the Hornets have the 20th ranked strength of schedule for the rest of the year in terms of difficulty. They’ll also play 13 of their final 22 games at home.

Still, the Hornets limped into the All-Star Break having lost nine of ten. They’ve lost ground due to six overtime loses and will be without Gordon Hayward for the foreseeable future. Charlotte will have to prove they can bounce back (and do it fast) or this season will shape up to be very similar to last year’s. One thing is for sure: If the Charlotte Hornets can earn a top six seed, it’ll be very, very impressive.